Thursday, July 28, 2005

Indian October

1. With the weather cool here in MN and rain on the TV in Yanqui Stadium (v 1.2), it felt a bit like October. Exciting game, watched most of it. From "How do we not score more than one run on 23 hits, 9 walks, a hit batter, and 235 pitches in 5 innings?" To "Yeah! Runs!" to "Bernie F-ing Williams" to "It stayed foul! Foul! Just a long strike!" God I love baseball, especially baseball in the fall, and tonight's simulation was good enough to up my mood by about 15%.

2. Special shout out to that ball that Bernie Williams hit. Thank you so much kind ball for hooking foul. You are the official Baseball of AMR's for the week.

3. Scotty Ulger was at third? Why? Has there been a shakeup we don't know about? Has Al Newman become the hitting coach? I think Boone may have had a chance to get back to third, he was out by a good 50 feet.

4. I think the walk to Giambi in the 8th was good for the Twins. We had a 6-run lead and the dude, who SBG has noted is very damned good again, could have made it a 2-run lead like that. We should definitely be willing to sacrifice a run to get to face Posada and Martinez.

5. Are the Yanquis actually pitching Small tomorrow or Hideo Nomo who they just claimed off waivers?

6. The whole damned mini-slump was my fault. I noticed my Elvis-Trivia-Day-Calendar* hadn't been changed since the 21st (last time the Twins won back-to-back games), and that the last time I updated my pocket schedule was the third game against Baltimore. These things make a difference. I'll stay on track tomorrow.

6*. The Calendar's kindof a joke, but not a good one.

7. They seriously need a stat for a reliver who makes things worse. An un-save. Taking a save situation for the other team and making it not so. Sturtze and Graman each get one for last night. Any suggestions?

8. The Royals pulled the damned thing out yesterday while I was eating dinner. That was a hell of a game, too. 0-5 in the 6th to 6-5 in the 13th. Two ChiSox baserunners caught off base (one stealing, one picked) in the 12th. Now they have 4 games against TB. Reach for that .500 KC! (Just get your wins against teams other than MIN).

9. (Non-political politics.) Remember, I'm a recovering political junkie. I read this article in yesterday's Strib. "Minnesota tops in 'Democracy Index.'" Excerpts:

A new report ranks the state No. 1 in its "democracy index," ... The report, called "Dubious Democracy 2005," ranked the states on a number of factors, including average margin of victory, voter turnout and the number of House races won by landslides.


Minnesota had the highest voter turnout last fall at 75 percent. But the study found that 54 percent of the state's eligible voters did not vote for the candidate who now represents them in Congress.

So which is better? Competitive races or more people voting for their representatives? They are in complete opposition. If 75% of eligible voters vote (MN's actual rate, tops in the nation, very good), and all the races are 80-20 % blowouts, then 60% of eligible voters (80% * 75%) voted for their representatives, meaning 40% did not vote for their representative. If all the races are very competitive and come down to one vote (50%+1, 50%-1), then only 37.5% of voters voted for their representatives, and 62.5% did not. I'd prefer competitive elections, (an issue of personal taste), but that means I want fewer people having picked their representative.

And, I didn't even consider that MN has significant tertiary parties and some people win with 38% (Ventura) to 45% (Pawlenty) to 49% (Coleman), although this has been less pronounced in US House races, which this study seems to value over Senators, and state officials.

And, for the '04 Presidential race, everybody lost. Those who voted for Bush in MN didn't get their electors elected, and those who voted for Kerry had elected their electors but had their electors outnumbered.


Blogger SBG said...

Regarding your "making things worse" stat, it's been done. I bought the e-book from the The Hardball Times written by Dave Studeman (who is a friend of SBG, The Mag) and it measures effectiveness of a reliever by calculating a team's probability of winning a game when the reliever comes in and the probability of winning when the reliever leaves. Good stuff.

10:03 PM  

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